{"id":179530,"date":"2024-05-21T18:23:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T23:23:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/?p=179530"},"modified":"2024-06-21T06:32:56","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T11:32:56","slug":"probability-and-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/probability-and-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability and weather"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-399x640.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"399\" height=\"640\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-179519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-399x640.jpg 399w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-638x1024.jpg 638w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-768x1232.jpg 768w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-958x1536.jpg 958w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-1277x2048.jpg 1277w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2-1200x1925.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Pole-2.jpg 1596w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 399px) 85vw, 399px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sunday afternoon the weatherman declared that there was a 100% chance of rain that evening. As the afternoon became evening, that chance steadily diminished, and I figured we&#8217;d be lucky to get a trace of moisture. When the probability dipped down to 38% and it looked like everything was indeed going to miss us, I heard thunder. Then rain came, arriving horizonally at 86 mph.<span id='easy-footnote-1-179530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/probability-and-weather\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-179530' title='That was the official wind speed reading at the nearby airport. It may well have been higher elsewhere in town.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span> The wind uprooted trees all over town and snapped telephone poles. I was lucky and my place got almost no damage, but where the ash tree was that I used to see out the window while I sat at my desk is now just blue sky. The neighborhood did lose electricity for a day and a half \u2014 not surprising when the poles supporting power lines are broken into two or more pieces \u2014 but it&#8217;s back now. I was impressed with how quickly the worst of the mess on the street was cleared up. Yesterday morning, a fleet of pickup trucks from a nearby town brought a crew of about two dozen young men, who cleared the street and took chainsaws to the fallen trees and branches, leaving the debris neatly piled to be hauled away.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-640x269.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"269\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-179520\" srcset=\"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-640x269.jpg 640w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-1024x431.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-768x323.jpg 768w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-1536x647.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-2048x862.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Uprooted-tree-1200x505.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-640x447.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-179521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-640x447.jpg 640w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-1024x715.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-768x536.jpg 768w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-1536x1073.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-2048x1430.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-1-1200x838.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Stay far away from old cottonwood trees during stormy weather.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-640x438.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"438\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-179518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-640x438.jpg 640w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-1536x1051.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-2048x1401.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Cottonwood-2-1200x821.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>(The pictures were taken at a park at the other side of town but are representative of the storm damage.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sunday afternoon the weatherman declared that there was a 100% chance of rain that evening. As the afternoon became evening, that chance steadily diminished, and I figured we&#8217;d be lucky to get a trace of moisture. When the probability dipped down to 38% and it looked like everything was indeed going to miss us, I &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/probability-and-weather\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Probability and weather&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-179530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-photo-gallery","category-real-life-adventures"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4xam3-KHE","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179530"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":180141,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179530\/revisions\/180141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shuffly.net\/zoop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}